Sports Betting Math

Most people who want to bet rocket play online casino on sports are primarily fans. It's not unheard of for a player to make some sports bets, especially during big games like the Super Bowl or the NCAA Basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports betting is about sports fans wanting to use their knowledge of the game or the players of the game to earn a little extra money. Being a fan of a certain sport, team, college or professional team-all these are harbingers of placing a sports bet. Sports betting is also a way for a fan to gain access to the action of the game, with something more than self-esteem at stake.

All gambling is math, even gambling. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, such as Penny Slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart players earn their advantage by avoiding them completely. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may have to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings and injuries with the same zeal that other connoisseurs reserve for fancy wrinkles.

So how difficult is the math of sports betting? The math behind placing a winning bet is quite complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is quite simple. If you collect 52.4% of your bets, you will break even. We'll have more information about this number later, including why it takes more than 50% of winnings to break even , but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind them.

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Sports Betting Basics

The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to come up with an example. Let's say you and your friend enter a casino, each with $ 200 burning a hole in your pocket. There's a big game going on tonight, Cowboys and Redskins, so you wander into the bookmaker's office to check out the latest news about the game. While you're sitting there, you see a betting board that has some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:

• 428 Cowboys +175

* 429 Redskins -4 -200 38

Some of this is easy enough to read. Redskins -4 means that the Redskins prefer to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on " skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the money line, in this case the Redskins are the 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the amount exceeding/decreasing the expected number of points scored in the game.

Learn more about placing sports bets

Look at this number from above/below, in this case 38. If you or your friend think that this will be a particularly high or low score of the game, based on your knowledge of the team's offense and defense, or information about an injured player or poor playing conditions, you can bet on the total number of points scored.

So how does a guy know how to literally bet on sports? You need to know three things:

#1 – the type of bet you want to make

#2 is the number of the corresponding team that you have selected, and

#3 is the amount that you want to bet

Knowing all this in advance, the ticket author gets the details he needs to write the ticket, without leaning back to process your bid.

Tips and sports betting

We haven't even gotten to the meat of sports mathematics yet, and we're already talking about tipping the staff outside the window? Yes. That's why.

If you make two bets of $ 100 and you win, you will collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip of about five percent of your winnings. Yes, it's a $ 22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and of course you can pay for twenty seats for the guy who helped you win it. If you regularly tip around the five percent mark when you win, you're much more likely to get free drinks, and that's pretty much all you'll get in sports.

So, let's go back to the basic mathematics of sports betting. You and your friend, after much thought, decide to each place a $ 100 bet on your favorite team. And now what?

To bet on the Redskins using the points spread, your bet is called-I lay the points."In order for your bet to pay off, the skins must win by five or more to cover the spread. Remember that if the skins win by exactly four, then the game is a push, and both sides win back their bet. Another option is called "taking points" from the cowboys. This means that the cowboys must lose by three or less for your bet to win, or if the cowboys win outright. So, you and your buddy go up to place a $ 100 bet, and you find that the standard direct bet at any bookmaker pays 11/10. Those funds you have to bet $ 110 if you want to win $100. You and your friend pay the bookmaker $ 110 and sit with drinks to see how your bets are coming in.

These are deceptively simple bets. Deceptively, because they make it look like the result of a football match, like the result of collecting balls from a bag. Put one black ball and two white balls in the bag, pull out one at random, and here's your football match. In the end, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.

But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sports event is much more complicated. Sports players deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather reports from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge betting decisions based on a few miles per hour of wind in one direction or another. Then there is the unknown—does the player get injured in the first quarter? Is the weather becoming a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone"? "

How do bookmakers make a profit?

As soon as we finish thinking about the concept of complex mathematics in the game against the background of major sporting events, we will return to the simpler side of sports betting. Bookmakers make a profit because of this. What is cheerfulness?

Take another look at the example above. You and your friend paid $ 10 each to a bookmaker to place a bet. This is what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet on the Cowboys, and your friend bet on the Redskins, for a total of $220 bet. The bookmaker must repay the debt of $ 210 to the winner, leaving a good profit of $ 10, regardless of what happens on the football field. This built-in profit of $ 10 is called vigorish, and it is the latest adjustable wrench in sports betting transfers.

Obviously, bookmakers will accept more than two bets on any game, but this example is for simplicity. By looking at the total number of bets on various games during the week and adjusting the money line and other figures, the bookmaker makes a profit in another way. Adjusting the odds by a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the strike balance and make the book more likely to make a profit, no matter what.

Basically, a bookmaker is a person who withholds money from players and then pays them if they win and keeps their money if they don't. This is the essence of this work.

When a bookmaker sets odds for games, he embeds what bookmakers call an “over-round”into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is " juice.” For simplicity, let's consider a boxing match in which both opponents are equally talented, have the same height, etc.Since they both have equal chances of winning, a random bet can even be money. You bet $ 20 on one guy; your friend bets $ 20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins, he awards the player the amount of $ 40.

Bookmakers don't even offer money as friends in a random betting situation. In the example above with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookmaker will offer 5/6 odds for each. Thus, a winning bet of $ 10 will return only $ 8.30 plus your bet. What does this do for the bookmaker? He can put an equal amount of money on both fighters, winning regardless of which one actually wins. If they take bets of $ 1,000 on one boxer and $ 1,000 on another, the bookmaker will take $ 1,000, but will only have to pay out $ 830 for a guaranteed win. $ 170 profit regardless of the result.

What is a money bet?

A money line bet simply involves choosing one of the two teams to win the game. No trick, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer.

Each team/person in a money line option match is given a separate numeric value for bets, and they are called "odds"."The numbers, or odds, are determined by bookmakers and bookmakers based on how two opponents match, and each number is displayed with a minus sign (-) or a plus sign (+) in front of it. Read more about this below.

Here is an example from the NFL game between The New England Patriots and The Kansas City Chiefs about what the moneyline odds will look like in an online bookmaker:

NEW England Patriots Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Team Money Line Odds

NEW England Patriots -120

Kansas City Chiefs +150

In this moneyline scenario, the Patriots are the favorites, which you can tell by the minus sign ( - ). The Chiefs are the outsiders – you can see this because of the plus sign (+). This is universal in all sports books for American coefficients.

Let's say you bet $ 100 on stroking. A winning bet will give you a payout of $ 180 – your $ 100 is returned along with your $80 winnings. On the other hand, if you had bet the same $100 on the chiefs and they won, you would have received a payout of $250 – your initial bet is returned along with your prize of $150.

Betting on outsiders, in this case on bosses, is considered more risky, but you get a bigger reward. Conversely, betting on the Patriots is less risky, which means it comes with less reward.

What does this mean minus ( - ) and plus ( + ) coefficients?

About Odds Shark, we mainly use American odds, because most betting sites use them, especially when displaying odds on a money line.

A number with a minus sign ( - ) means that you must bet to win $ 100, while a number with a plus sign ( + ) means that you will win if you bet $ 100.

Instead of quoting an NFL game, let's try the example of the NBA between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics.

Los "Los Angeles Lakers" - "Boston Celtics"

Team Money Line Odds

Los Angeles Lakers -140

Boston Celtics +175

As for the Celtics, you will need to bet only $ 36 to win $ 100, since they are the outsider. But for the Lakers, you would have to bet $ 140 to win $ 100 in profit. However, you don't always need to bet exactly $ 100.

The amount you bet is entirely up to you, but this method makes it easier to track, especially for recreational sports enthusiasts, because bankroll management is necessary for long-term success.

Situational Betting On Moneyline

As you become more comfortable with sports betting and understanding moneyline odds, there are a variety of scenarios that may arise that are not as common as the examples above. Let's explore them:

NO A Clear Favorite

When betting on money lines, not every match will have a clear favorite or an outsider. In fact, cranks may think that the game is so close to a call that their chances of a money line will be almost the same.

You will encounter many of them on the bulletin board, no matter what sport you are focused on. When evenly matched teams converge, it can be close to a draw in terms of which side will win.

For example, in a very tough NFL game, you can see such moneyline coefficients:

Minnesota Vikings Vs. New Orleans Saints

Team Money Line Odds

Minnesota Varyag -105

NEW Orleans Saints -115

As you can see, none of the teams has positive odds ( + ), because the bookmaker believes that both teams have almost equal chances of winning the game. However, this does not mean that you should flip a coin and hope for the best.

You will still have to force the game in search of a winner. It doesn't matter how even the teams may seem at first glance or according to the coefficients. You can almost always find the edge. If nothing stands out for you, there is no shame in handing over a game that is legitimately too close to call.

Lower Score Sports

Unlike football and basketball, where scoring occurs quite regularly during the game, other sports, such as baseball , hockey and football, usually have low scores. This is why betting on moneyline can be the main betting choice for these sports, because there are so few scoring opportunities.

For hockey, the standard final score in the NHL can be 3-2 or 2-1. The same can be said about football. As for baseball, the final MLB scores may vary, but usually do not exceed 12 rounds between the two teams.

This is why point spreads are usually not applied to these sports, and money lines are an easier way. Here is an example of moneyline coefficients for games with a lower score:

Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees

Team Money Line Odds

Boston Red Sox -165

NEW York Yankees +180

Here is an example for the NHL:

Montreal Canadiens - New York Rangers

Team Money Line Odds

Montreal Canadiens -135

NEW York Rangers +120

Just like in football or basketball, you will still use the same thought process when betting on a money line. But since the winnings will be smaller, players should know that there are only a few moments in these games that are likely to determine the outcome of the bet.

How To Place A Bet On The Moneyline Handicap

Before making any bets on moneyline, an experienced sports player will conduct an extensive study of the game. Match breakdown, odds, and specific team advantages are all part of the sport's handicapping process, and even then it's not an exact science for long-term success.

Below we will take a detailed look at some key aspects of the match that all players should investigate and explain why they are important for the outcome of a money line bet.

Opening Coefficients

After the announcement of a match in football, basketball or any other sport, bookmakers will release betting odds for the match for the money line. Players should scan daily matches to see if there is a difference in odds from previous games, as these numbers will move as soon as the market gets a chance to react.

Tracking odds from the moment they are opened to the moment of placing a bet and before the game starts can provide key indicators of what the betting community thinks and how oddsmakers see the game coming out of the game.

Home vs Road Performance

The prevailing theory in sports is that teams tend to perform better at home than they do on the road. But there are also teams that thrive by playing away from home. So, as a player, what are you doing?

Well, this is the time when you analyze how each team works in these situations to determine whether the latest results at home or on the road will be relevant to the upcoming match.

You may find that a team like the Toronto Raptors has lost five games in a row at home, but now hosts the Chicago Bulls and has won five games in a row in this match. These data may not be a decisive factor when placing your bet on a money line, but they should certainly be taken into account.

Edge Match

Researching a particular match and how it can potentially affect the game requires a lot of experience and study, but for new players it can be as simple as looking at the attack against the defense.

For each sport, there are many specific player matches that can affect the game and, in turn, affect your bet on the money line. Some of the most popular matchup edges to research include whether specific NFL teams have trouble stopping a pass catching running backs, or if an NBA team is struggling to stop opposing guards.

In MLB, how a team handles a left-handed pitch can be crucial. In hockey, the decisive factor is how a team acts when it has to play on penalties and be short. Every sport and game has an advantage in the match, and you, as a player, should try to use it.

Recent Play

Every team in the sport goes through ups and downs during the season. No team remains undefeated (with the exception of the Patriots and Dolphins).

Although recent games are not a guarantee of what will happen in the future, it is a strong indicator of how things are going for the team as a whole. If one team is gaining momentum while the other is faltering, you have found an important variable to consider.

The various sample sizes of games are great for determining a recent game and can be found using the extensive shark coefficients database of the game log.

A good way to start is to use the last 10 games for a team in the NBA, MLB or NHL, or the last three games for an NFL team. How else can you predict the future without knowing your history?

Money Line Strategy: betting on favorites vs. betting on outsiders

If you have come this far, then you know that moneyline odds have favorites and outsiders, but experienced players do not only use the potential profit as a compass to choose a winner.

Regardless of the payouts, the main goal of any bet on a money line is to win. Making the right choice is the ultimate goal, so your choice should revolve around which side you think has the best chance of winning.

Let's use the NBA matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks as an explanation:

Golden State Warriors Vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Team Money Line Odds

Golden State Warriors +120

Bookmakers look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust the odds and other factors to make sure that their books are balanced. Although it is impossible to completely balance the book, bookmakers who go too far on one side risk losing money,and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All these factors are the reason why bookmakers usually root for the outsider—too many favorites win in sports with a short season (for example, the NFL) it can lead to the fact that the bookmaker will lose money, while a bunch of upsets (as you usually see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.

The short answer here is that the bookmakers making money have nothing to do with your bets. It's almost unheard of for a single customer to be allowed to place enough bets to sink a single book on their own. High rollers in sports betting receive special privileges regarding the maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with the player's luck—the maximums increase after the player sees big losses, and decrease (sharply) when the player begins to get lucky.