Sports Betting Math

Most people who want to bet on sports are primarily fans. It's not unheard of for a player to make some sports bets, especially during big games like the Super Bowl or the NCAA Basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports betting is about sports fans wanting to use their knowledge of the game or the players of the game to earn a little extra money. Being a fan of a certain sport, team, college or professional team-all these are harbingers of placing a sports bet. Sports betting is also a way for a fan to gain access to the action of the game, with something more than self-esteem at stake.

All gambling is Betwinner app download math, even gambling. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, such as Penny Slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart players earn their advantage by avoiding them completely. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may have to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings and injuries with the same zeal that other connoisseurs reserve for fancy wrinkles.

Betting Against Consensus Doesn't Make You ' Sharp’

If you are a fan of reading lines or want to learn how to read lines and the underlying motion science, find a website that offers both percentages. This is absolutely necessary when analyzing the daily map.

Many players who like to bet against the public think that they are " sharp” , but there are sharp players, and there are fake sharp players. Fake sharp players just blindly disappear (go against) the public without any other factors.

The fact is that ordinary players can actually bet against Sharps without even knowing about it, because they had no idea about the sums of money made in this game.

There is a whole other world of betting science that sports fans are completely unaware of. The sports betting education system has not yet reached its peak, but I believe that in the future, real experts and betting brains will finally rise up and teach them their skills.

With the Help Of A Bet And A Monetary Percentage In Your Favor

Sports betting is a long-term process, and sticking to systems that have a profitable expected value of 54%+ is the right way. When I say "expected value", I mean a long-term approach with data redundancy.

One of the strategies for making a profit, when it comes to viewing the percentage of bets and the percentage of money, is to reverse the line on teams receiving big money. If 70% of the population bets on one NHL and yet 80% of the money falls on another team, this is a golden ticket to long-term success.

This means that you get two valuable pieces of information. You can go up against average Joe players who are all stacked on the same side, thinking it's an easy winner, while at the same time being on the same side as the pros who are making tough bets on this team or total.

Remember that just blindly fading away the audience is not a very good strategy. However, the expected value on the reverse movement of the line with 70% of the money on the side opposite to the percentage of the public rate will make you rich in the long run.

Stick to it and be patient.So how difficult is the math of sports betting? The math behind placing a winning bet is quite complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is quite simple. If you collect 52.4% of your bets, you will break even. We'll have more information about this number later, including why it takes more than 50% of winnings to break even , but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind them.

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Sports Betting Basics

The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to come up with an example. Let's say you and your friend enter a casino, each with $ 200 burning a hole in your pocket. There's a big game going on tonight, Cowboys and Redskins, so you wander into the bookmaker's office to check out the latest news about the game. While you're sitting there, you see a betting board that has some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:

• 428 Cowboys +175

* 429 Redskins -4 -200 38

Some of this is easy enough to read. Redskins -4 means that the Redskins prefer to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on " skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the money line, in this case the Redskins are the 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the amount exceeding/decreasing the expected number of points scored in the game.

Learn more about placing sports bets

Look at this number from above/below, in this case 38. If you or your friend think that this will be a particularly high or low score of the game, based on your knowledge of the team's offense and defense, or information about an injured player or poor playing conditions, you can bet on the total number of points scored.

So how does a guy know how to literally bet on sports? You need to know three things:

#1 – the type of bet you want to make

#2 is the number of the corresponding team that you have selected, and

#3 is the amount that you want to bet

Knowing all this in advance, the ticket author gets the details he needs to write the ticket, without leaning back to process your bid.

Tips and sports betting

We haven't even gotten to the meat of sports mathematics yet, and we're already talking about tipping the staff outside the window? Yes. That's why.

If you make two bets of $ 100 and you win, you will collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip of about five percent of your winnings. Yes, it's a $ 22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and of course you can pay for twenty seats for the guy who helped you win it. If you regularly tip around the five percent mark when you win, you're much more likely to get free drinks, and that's pretty much all you'll get in sports.

So, let's go back to the basic mathematics of sports betting. You and your friend, after much thought, decide to each place a $ 100 bet on your favorite team. And now what?

To bet on the Redskins using the points spread, your bet is called-I lay the points."In order for your bet to pay off, the skins must win by five or more to cover the spread. Remember that if the skins win by exactly four, then the game is a push, and both sides win back their bet. Another option is called "taking points" from the cowboys. This means that the cowboys must lose by three or less for your bet to win, or if the cowboys win outright. So, you and your buddy go up to place a $ 100 bet, and you find that the standard direct bet at any bookmaker pays 11/10. Those funds you have to bet $ 110 if you want to win $100. You and your friend pay the bookmaker $ 110 and sit with drinks to see how your bets are coming in.

These are deceptively simple bets. Deceptively, because they make it look like the result of a football match, like the result of collecting balls from a bag. Put one black ball and two white balls in the bag, pull out one at random, and here's your football match. In the end, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.

But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sports event is much more complicated. Sports players deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather reports from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge betting decisions based on a few miles per hour of wind in one direction or another. Then there is the unknown—does the player get injured in the first quarter? Is the weather becoming a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone"? "

How do bookmakers make a profit?

As soon as we finish thinking about the concept of complex mathematics in the game against the background of major sporting events, we will return to the simpler side of sports betting. Bookmakers make a profit because of this. What is cheerfulness?

Take another look at the example above. You and your friend paid $ 10 each to a bookmaker to place a bet. This is what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet on the Cowboys, and your friend bet on the Redskins, for a total of $220 bet. The bookmaker must repay the $ 210 debt to the winner, leaving a good profit of $ 10, regardless of what happens on the football field. This built-in profit of $ 10 is called vigorish, and it is the latest adjustable wrench in sports betting transfers.

Obviously, bookmakers will accept more than two bets on any game, but this example is for simplicity. By looking at the total number of bets on various games during the week and adjusting the money line and other figures, the bookmaker makes a profit in another way. Adjusting the odds by a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the strike balance and make the book more likely to make a profit, no matter what.

Basically, a bookmaker is a person who withholds money from players and then pays them if they win, and keeps their money if they don't. This is the essence of this work.

When a bookmaker sets odds for games, he embeds what bookmakers call an “over-round”into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is " juice.” For simplicity, let's consider a boxing match in which both opponents are equally talented, have the same height, etc.Since they both have equal chances of winning, a random bet can even be money. You bet $ 20 on one guy; your friend bets $ 20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins, he awards the player the amount of $ 40.

Bookmakers don't even offer money as friends in a random betting situation. In the example above with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookmaker will offer 5/6 odds for each. Thus, a winning bet of $ 10 will return only $ 8.30 plus your bet. What does this do for the bookmaker? He can put an equal amount of money on both fighters, winning regardless of which one actually wins. If they take bets of $ 1,000 on one boxer and $ 1,000 on another, the bookmaker will take $ 1,000, but will only have to pay out $ 830 for a guaranteed win. $ 170 profit regardless of the result.

Bookmakers look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust the odds and other factors to make sure that their books are balanced. Although it is impossible to completely balance the book, bookmakers who go too far on one side risk losing money,and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All these factors are the reason why bookmakers usually root for the outsider—too many favorites win in sports with a short season (for example, the NFL) it can lead to the fact that the bookmaker will lose money, while a bunch of upsets (as you usually see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.

The short answer here is that the bookmakers making money have nothing to do with your bets. It is almost unheard of for a single customer to be allowed to place enough bets to sink a single book on their own. High rollers in sports betting receive special privileges regarding the maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with the player's luck—the maximums increase after the player sees big losses, and decrease (sharply) when the player begins to get lucky.